Third parties could attract just enough support to sway the outcome of two races in Illinois.
Democratic governor Pat Quinn is running neck-and-neck with Republican rival BruceRauner. Real Clear Politics considers the race a “toss up.”
Both of the major party candidates are pro-choice on the abortion issue, but the Libertarian candidate, Chad Grimm, is pro-life.
DavidYepsen, the director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University-Carbondale, said that could lead some socially conservative voters to Grimm.
“So you could have a situation where the Libertarian maybe draws enough votes away from the Republican BruceRaunerto throw the election to Democrat incumbent Pat Quinn,”Yepsensaid.
Third party or independent candidates are more likely to affect an election’s outcome when voters have negative feelings about both the major party candidates. Libertarian candidates tend to attract conservative voters who would normally cast their ballot for Republicans. Likewise, the Green party pulls liberal voters away from the Democrats, according to Chris Mooney, the director of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois.
“When a third-party or a non-major [party] candidate is clearly identified with one end of the political spectrum or another and when there’s a lot of negative feeling toward the major candidates, it can hurt the candidate who is more closely associated with that side of the spectrum,” Mooney said.
"Sometimes the third party can get the protest vote or the ‘none-of-the-above’ vote, but it only matters if that vote is disproportionately taken from one candidate or the other,” Mooney said.
The Illinois12thCongressional race features a similar dynamic that harms the Democrat. Incumbent Congressman BillEnyart, a Democrat, is facing a stout challenge from Republican MikeBost. The race is considered one of the closest Congressional races in the country and Green Party candidate Paula Bradshaw could siphon some liberal votes away fromEnyart.
“The interesting question there is whether the Green candidate will get enough votes, 5 or 6 percent, which normally would go to the liberal candidate, the Democratic candidate in the race, and enableBostto win that election with a plurality,”Yepsensaid.
“Third parties oftentimes say they don’t really make a difference in the outcome,”Yepsensaid. “But my belief is that if they were not in the race, their votes would go to one party or the other.”
Ken Warren, a political science professor at St. Louis University does not think third party candidates Bradshaw and Grimm will play a huge role because neither is polling very well. Some third candidates carry large numbers in the polls, Warren said, like presidential candidates Ralph Nader in 2000 and Ross Perot in 1992. Both Grimm and Bradshaw’s polling numbers are small.
“But on the other hand, in races that are so incredibly close, just one or two percent could be enough to do one of those candidates in,” Warren said.
Copyright 2014 KRCU Public Radio
